Roof Capital Planning in Orlando, FL

We have run capital planning engagements for hotel portfolios on International Drive, medical office groups in the Lake Nona Medical City area, office park owners along Maitland Center Parkway, and industrial owners on the Florida Turnpike logistics corridor. The format of the deliverable adapts to the audience — a facilities director needs different detail than a REIT asset manager — but the underlying data and methodology are the same.

The recover-versus-replace decision is the most consequential roof capital decision a building owner makes, and it is routinely made on incomplete information. A contractor who only replaces roofs will recommend replacement. A contractor who only does recover will recommend recover. The decision should be made on the moisture data from the existing insulation, the condition of the structural deck, the remaining life of the existing membrane, and the cost differential between the two paths over the next 15-20 years on a lifecycle basis.

We pull moisture cores on roofs where the recover decision is in question — typically five to ten locations in the zones of highest suspected saturation (at drains, at known leak points, at perimeter zones that hold water). If more than 25% of the roof area has saturated insulation, recover is generally not a sound capital decision because the new membrane will trap the moisture, accelerate deck corrosion, and void the new warranty. We make that call based on the core data, not on which scope pays us better.

When the recover path is viable — dry insulation, sound deck, membrane in the 50-70% life remaining range — we model both paths. In Orlando, a full replacement on a 100,000 sq ft TPO roof typically runs $700,000-$1,200,000 depending on system specification and site conditions. A recover on the same footprint with a dry existing insulation stack typically runs $350,000-$600,000. The lifecycle cost difference over 20 years depends on the warranty terms available under each path, which we include in the comparison.

Central Florida's hurricane exposure compresses the practical decision window for roof capital. A roof that is 15 years old and showing meaningful condition deterioration has a different risk profile in Orlando than the same roof would have in Chicago. If a named storm makes landfall within 200 miles of Orlando, wind and rain loads will stress every existing weakness in the roof system — and the repair and replacement market after a major event is significantly more expensive and less available than in a normal year.

Our capital plans include a storm-risk sensitivity analysis that identifies the event type that would likely accelerate the capital timing. For a roof that the current condition data puts at 5 years remaining life, we identify what category of storm event would compress that to 2 years, and we build a contingency budget scenario around that compressed timeline. Building owners who understand this analysis can make informed decisions about whether to accelerate the capital event ahead of the next storm season rather than running the risk of an emergency replacement at post-storm pricing.

The post-Ian period in 2022-2023 is the most recent data point. Buildings that needed replacement but were planning to wait another 3 years found themselves competing for contractor time in a post-storm environment where demand exceeded supply. Planned replacement in the 12 months before Ian's remnant bands hit Central Florida would have been 20-30% cheaper and significantly faster to schedule.

The capital plan we deliver includes: the current condition assessment for each building, a 5-year capital projection table with event type (maintenance, repair, recover, replace), timing range, and cost band, a recover-vs-replace analysis for buildings within 5 years of a major decision point, a storm-risk sensitivity section for buildings in active deterioration, and an executive summary that a building owner or asset manager can read in under 10 minutes.

For portfolios, we produce a consolidated view across all buildings showing the distribution of capital events across the planning horizon — so that an owner managing 10 buildings across Orange and Osceola counties can see whether their capital needs are evenly distributed or concentrated in a 2-year window that would stress the operating budget. Capital concentration is addressable with phased scheduling, warranty extensions, or targeted recover scopes that buy time on buildings approaching the decision point.

Five years is the right planning horizon for most Central Florida commercial buildings. Starts getting into serious specification and bid work about 18-24 months before the intended replacement date — enough time to run a competitive bid process, pull permits, and schedule construction in the optimal weather window. If the roof is already showing Priority 1 deficiencies, the timeline compresses and we advise accordingly.

The cost bands we provide in capital plans are based on current Orlando-market contractor pricing for the scope type and system we are projecting. We update our pricing data quarterly. For a project 3-5 years out, the bands are +/- 20-25% from today's pricing — the market will move. For a project 12-18 months out, we can provide a tighter estimate based on a more detailed scope. The capital plan estimate is not a contract price; it is planning guidance.

Yes. We have produced capital plan presentations for building ownership groups, REIT asset managers, condo association boards, and municipal facilities committees. The format we use for those presentations is an executive summary with the key decisions, the cost range, and the risk narrative — supported by the detailed technical data in an appendix. We can attend the presentation or provide the materials for the facilities team to present.

That is exactly what the capital plan is designed to surface. Finding a $900,000 replacement event 24 months out gives ownership time to adjust the capital budget, explore financing options, or evaluate whether a recover scope can extend the timeline and defer some of the capital. Finding it 6 months out after an emergency rain event leaves no good options. We would rather deliver news that requires budget adjustment than let the building reach the crisis point.